Tuesday, May 28, 2013

A Plausible Script

Chennai Super Kings 192/1 (20/20 ov); Mumbai Indians 144 (18.4/20 ov)
Chennai Super Kings won by 48 runs

A plausible enough script on the face of it. Strong CSK batting clicking. But not so plausible for the strong MI bowling to flop miserably, their ace bowler Malinga going for maximum among the bowlers, 45 runs. 

While CSK scored a massive 192 in 20 overs, the scoring in first session of 10 overs was so manipulated that for most part, except for may be a ball or two, the score on offer by the bookies remained such that the ultimate session score was same or less than the offered score, assuming an adopted average of 7 runs per over by the bookies. A reasonable enough assumption. And the manipulation in the next session of 10-20 overs was the other way round, taking even average of 11 runs per over for the remaining overs for bookies to offer session. Score at the end of 10 overs being 69/1, and 192/1 after 20 overs. A normal looking phenomenon, but scoring patterns were such that statistically improbable occurrence for natural cricket, took place in two consecutive betting sessions. 

Hold on. Not two, but something with probability of more than 1 in trillions and millions to happen, happens three out of three times in a match. And don't forget, this was the match being played when the nothing but IPL scandal was in the Indian media. The scoring in the first 6 over session of MI innings was also such that, even taking average as high as of 8 runs per over for bookies to offer session score, the ultimate score was more than the maximum offered at any point of time during the session.

Though MI not able to chase down more than challenging CSK total and folding up for 144 looks normal enough, it will be worth watching how the key to chasing down this total for MI, Pollard, lost his wicket in the 15th over.

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