Friday, April 5, 2013

3/4/2013: DD vs KKR - First Match of IPL-6

How does fixing reveal itself in this match? Let us see. The odds given are betfair odds.

The ultimate winner of the match, KKR, were the pre-start favourites with odds of 1.72 or so in their favour. After the toss, the odds reduced to 1.64 or so and after the first wicket off the first ball, to 1.51 or so.  And the side favoured by the bookies won comfortably in a one sided contest throughout, except for a brief period, from the 3rd over to 5th over, when the 2nd wicket partnership between Jayawardene and Warner was progressing well. Then also mostly KKR remained favourite, though just for a few moments DD became favourite with odds of 1.95 or so in their favour during the 5th over. Then Warner’s wicket fell in the 6th over and from there onward it became a cakewalk for KKR with odds falling back to 1.6 in their favour. With score of 45/2 at the end of 6th over, and fair amount of batting and hitters to come, were these odds justified? The progress of the match from there on showed so.

In T20 matches, normally there are 2 sessions of 10 overs each in first batting and a session of first 6 (power-play) overs in the second batting. Let us assume it was so in this match. The scoring from 10 to 20 overs, with regular fall of wickets, from umpiring error (Botha) to batsmen getting caught out to lone fielders in the vicinity of their lofted shots, remained such that the ultimate score must have been less than the minimum on offer during any stage of this session. Such scoring pattern may not indicate anything to a casual viewer and in isolation. But repetition of such exceptional scoring pattern again and again in match after match does indicate manipulated scoring, and hence ball to ball fixing.

Not that scoring in other sessions was free and not manipulated. Try to understand what session betting is, think of it, and it will be easy to understand that existence of session betting itself is proof enough of ball to ball fixing, with involvement of all. Basically it is very very simple, once one's eyes are opened and one starts understanding.

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