Monday, April 8, 2013

7/4/2013: PW vs KXIP

PW, the pre-match favourites with odds of 1.7, win the toss and bat first. The greatest local hero, Yuvraj, sits out (some back problem, real or feigned?). Before start and during the Pune innings the TV experts and commentators reckon 130 to be a very good score on this pitch. 

Pune start batting and yes it is a difficult pitch. After first over PW are 1-1. Their illustrious batting is never able to come to terms with such a difficult pitch and they are just 99 for the loss of 9 wickets in the allotted 20 overs. 

But lo! when KXIP come to batting, the pitch is as good as one can be, and the necessary runs are scored in 12.2 overs for loss of just 2 wickets.

After last three jig jaw matches, the match goes one way towards KXIP with no opportunity ever during the match for bettors having placed bets on Pune, the favourites, to escape. Not a very common script, I must say, from my experience. But makes a lot of sense to trap/be-fool the punters, such a match coming on heels of last three consecutive matches to leave the punters high and dry.

Interestingly, the odds that jumped to 1.95 or 2.0 in f/o Pune, didn't come down appreciably as generally is the case even when brisk scoring was done in the 3rd and the 4th over. Was that the indication for the things to come? 

In both the sessions, 0-10 and 10-20, the ultimate session score was (should be) less than or same as the minimum score on offer by the bookies at any time during these sessions, or almost.

I shall try to explain here the 0-6 overs session in KXIP innings, to illustrate how tactfully and subtly the session scoring is scripted/done to be-fool/trap the punters, the purpose of staged cricket. Gilchrist hits 14 runs in the first over. Now there is a session score on offer. After 3 overs, score is 23/1, Gilchrist having holed out in this over. With this background, what would one expect regarding scoring pattern in next 3 overs, with two local lads on the crease? At best, some steady scoring. An unbelievable 31 runs (21+10) are scored off next 2 (not 3) overs.

I come to the crux now. Now if you are a punter and score on offer for the 6th over (still a power-play over) is just 7 runs, what would you do? Only 2 runs were scored in this 6th and final over of the session

One may brush the above off as something happening naturally. But one won't, if one has experienced session betting or has been able to visualise it, and one applies one's mind while seeing the replays.

And this sudden change/unexpected change in the scoring pattern in last over, or a group of last overs is not one-off phenomenon.

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